Your chances to hit the win in the lottery


What are the chances to hit the win in the lottery?

One can hardly imagine that there is a person in the world who has never dreamed of a windfall. Most of the people, wishing to win big, consider playing lotteries to be the only way to make their dreams come true. And speak by the lotteries draws, there are tens or even hundreds of millions of such dreamers.

Many people are attracted by the accessibility and simplicity of this entertainment. One does not have to graduate from the university, or to be a child of rich parents to win in a lottery; the tickets are fairly cheap stuff, too. All you need is luck and self-confidence! This confidence is the guiding source that makes people buy lottery tickets.

Of course, everyone who buys lottery tickets understands that this is such a long shot. Only very few lottery fans realize it for sure, how insignificant the probability to win a jackpot is. Furthermore, no one thinks about the future psychological problems that might arise. Let us figure out, how these people think and what they expect from life.

 “Optimistic bias”

_“Optimistic bias” image

In psychology, there is the term “cognitive bias” or “cognitive distortion”, which is simply the same sort of thing. The term refers to the irrational person’s behavior in certain situations. It makes people act contrary to common sense. And that is what explains before mentioned optimistic bias.

The point is that people tend to think of only good events are awaiting them.

Everyone considers himself a unique person; they are convinced that something bad and negative can only happen to other people. They believe that they are not covered by the average death rate, accidents, illnesses, and more other life troubles.

If we talk about the lottery, players are sure that any luck should come back to them eventually (even if they realize how negligible the chances are). There is no doubt that they are realistic about it, most people who buy lottery tickets never win. However, do not forget that if you are that lucky one, the jackpot will be yours!

This is the very same “optimistic bias”, forcing people to spend money on tickets week after a week.


Opinions image

There are two opposite opinions on whether it is possible to win in the lottery:

  • Skeptics confirm that it is almost impossible to win playing the lottery; in fact, the only persons who always prevail are the organizers, due to a large number of participants.
  • Optimists and experienced players think otherwise. They suppose that one can become rich and financially independent through the lottery. They also believe that the organizers work absolutely honestly, providing people with substantial gains.

It should be noted that the win is real. Every player has a chance; statistics and mathematics affirm the following: any ticket purchased anywhere can turn out to be a prizewinning one.

However, one should not forget about such a term in the game theory, which is called “a session” or “a distance”.

The point is that that you can play either one day or a week, a couple of months, half a year or even several years, but it is impossible to predict when you hit the jackpot. The trick is that the probability of winning is always the same. That means a person who purchased his first ticket can win the jackpot, as well as an experienced gambler.

Prospects of success

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Social and psychological research reveals that people are not able to assess the likelihood of events that happen very seldom. For example, it is hard for us to understand, what the chances to die from a lightning strike are.

An Israeli-American psychologist, the Nobel Prize-winning Daniel Kahneman did an interesting experiment. The main purpose of the experiment was to demonstrate how people make decisions when it comes to rare events.

There were two groups of American people, who were going to travel to Europe. They were offered two types of health insurance. The first one would be paid upon the death of a terrorist attack; the second insurance would cover death for any reason (including a terrorist attack). The prices were the same.

People from the first group purchased the first insurance (which assumes a terrorist attack only) more often, although the conditions were worse. The probability of becoming a victim of terrorists was not high, but the participants let their emotions get the better of them and were unable to assess the real chances.

Similar things go on inside a person’s head when he or she buys a lottery ticket. The chances of winning are negligible, but the jackpot stimulates a great effect. Impressed by the number of “zeroes”, we are in a hurry to try our fate!

What are the real chances to win a jackpot?

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The approximate chances of winning a jackpot in the lottery are 1:14 000 000.

Do you know what to do to become the lucky winner? If it is going about weekly lottery draws on $1 tickets, you need to spend $1,000 every weekend for 270 years. Color me impressed.

But, you think that these statistics do not apply to you, and you will outperform millions of other applicants, for sure!

For clarity, we give some other data:

  • To be born with six fingers – 1: 500
  • To get an Oscar – 1:12 000
  • To date a supermodel – 1:88 000
  • To die in a plane crash – 1: 350 000
  • To win at the Olympics – 1: 650 000
  • To die from being bitten by a dog – 1: 700 000
  • To die, falling in a bathroom – 1: 800 000
  • To become an astronaut – 1:13 500 000
  • Win a jackpot in the lottery – 1: 14 000 000

John Haigh gives a curious example in the book “Taking Chances”. According to the statistics, the probability of dying for a healthy person over the next year is 1:1,000. Thus, the chances to “go off the hooks” within an hour, starting from this minute, are 1:9,000,000. So, if you buy a lottery ticket an hour before the draw, you are more likely to die than become the lucky winner of the jackpot!

So why do we line up for the lottery tickets? Now we know the answer: it is all about the “optimistic bias”. This is the reason why we ignore real opportunities to win, preferring unlikely chances.

How to choose a game of chance?

The answer to this question is simple: the most profitable gambling.

It concerns the games with a maximum RTP level (theoretical return). In this case, you should select the games keeping in mind your skills and financial means. If you think about blackjack or video poker, you have to be able to be a better player, which is not so simple.

This is why we would recommend starting off with simple games where special skills are not required. For instance, RTP (return to a player) in some video slots is almost 98%. If you are eager to chase a jackpot, play some well-known jackpot-slots. To make it even more realistic, you can make a $1 spin once a week, imagining that you are playing the lottery.


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In conclusion, Online casino police reminds you that all kind of gambling should be treated as a responsible activity. Remember that you do not bet any virtual chips, but your personal real money.

You are welcome to read our blogs, where we will explain to you how to choose the right games and playing strategy.

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